As the usage of cloud services grows, the interest in a reliable cloud becomes more relevant. While this is also the case in research, reliability optimization is not as present as other quality measurements. An analysis of VM placements in cloud infrastructures helps to understand the resulting reliability better. We introduce a new formalism to generate VM placements in multi-layered cloud infrastructures, similar to those in real-world infrastructures. Our method allows us to generate deployment distributions and the corresponding reliability distribution of all placements of an application. We verify deployments generated by our method against deployments observed in state-of-the-art cloud software. Additionally, we show that our model can find worst-case deployments regarding reliability. An introduced heuristic limits the search space and allows us to generate deployments close to the worst-case.